Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 37.461223 44.443210 52.162367 61.301184 71.795448 83.438384 97.301527
2024-10-13 25.985222 34.799708 45.563934 59.554866 77.123619 98.308866 125.625178
2024-10-20 22.369794 32.759062 46.396952 65.335394 90.634100 122.908344 166.777886
2024-10-27 16.904050 26.932267 41.012049 61.781238 91.105567 130.416984 186.353137
2024-11-03 14.637071 25.011691 40.404576 64.244493 99.417480 148.434477 220.689737
2024-11-10 13.135481 23.895617 40.659756 67.750652 109.261490 169.051070 259.847568
2024-11-17 11.783293 22.738016 40.601508 70.621730 118.233363 188.878866 299.049754
2024-11-24 10.171926 20.839021 39.049206 70.865073 123.059966 202.775945 330.317502
2024-12-01 8.465140 18.451676 36.320918 68.795452 123.906870 210.525098 352.648917
2024-12-08 7.402974 17.070118 35.114464 69.074509 128.448200 224.123925 384.567966
2024-12-15 6.599422 16.049209 34.400965 70.078805 134.185594 239.865788 420.619269
2024-12-22 5.168527 13.451538 30.362177 64.595932 128.219959 236.065585 425.000044
2024-12-29 4.555615 12.627767 29.883119 66.121830 135.545322 256.174145 472.030379
2025-01-05 3.725341 11.131155 27.842201 64.468332 137.121822 266.977082 504.979543
2025-01-12 3.635088 11.421575 29.633175 70.680464 153.966096 305.554530 587.683580
2025-01-19 2.860293 9.740372 26.771980 66.877136 151.152408 308.887690 609.415441
2025-01-26 2.603204 9.400728 26.930578 69.515188 161.236926 336.294281 675.295722
2025-02-02 2.433347 9.270557 27.566470 73.268266 173.884303 369.252607 753.027483
2025-02-09 2.244392 9.032728 27.892009 76.340208 185.360741 400.696626 829.703604
2025-02-16 1.954852 8.389851 27.062404 76.600524 190.886149 421.032144 886.891111
2025-02-23 1.615094 7.465693 25.305993 74.386297 190.812983 430.359609 923.829244
2025-03-02 1.411460 6.958623 24.608835 74.684886 196.287335 451.009730 983.445320
2025-03-09 1.257426 6.588262 24.237862 75.759388 203.589762 475.775506 1052.297242